Prediction Post Mortems….Where not to Die in 2013….Success = Raising the Bridge and Lowering The River….Econ Recon: ‘Sundown in America?’

“The key to good decision making is not knowledge. It is understanding.

We are swimming in the former. We are desperately lacking in the latter.”

Malcolm Gladwell

Author of “The Tipping Point” and “Outliers: The Story of Success”

Prediction Post Mortems: The Once and Future Newspaper

Successful companies and their products seem obvious… in retrospect. But most truly innovative solutions are widely dismissed when first proposed, and many popular predictions never come to pass. The Smithsonian Magazine Website has a wonderful feature called “Paleofuture: A History of the Future that Never Was” in which past predictions are contrasted against actual outcomes.

Few would have thought that something as ubiquitous, successful and necessary as the newspaper could ever be threatened with extinction, but events have proved otherwise as newspapers fold and those that remain fight for their lives against alternatives that were never contemplated. Take a look back at “The Newspaper of Tomorrow:  11 Predictions From Yesteryear.”   Some reflection on what the forecasters of decades ago got wrong and right about newspapers, and why, may help hone your own prediction skills and motivate you to reset your business model before the world does it for you..

Where Not to Die in 2013

Many people dream about where they would like to live.  How about a little thought as to where you ought to die?  Many readers of this email will be subject to estate and inheritance taxes that are significant.  Check out this article with interactive map that shows the best places to file your last return.

Entrepreneurial Success = “Raising the Bridge and Lowering the River….”

…in other words,  “increasing sales and lower costs”.    Most of us associate entrepreneurial success with high sales growth driven to highly demanded, innovative products with great margins….so it’s easy to lose sight of the role that cost control plays in successful startups. FT Columnist and serial entrepreneur Luke Johnson warns top-line-focused CEOs of the need to focus on both to build a profitable enterprise. Take a minute to read his recent article  “An Eye On Costs Sets the Tone for Success.”

A reminder of two GREAT books on cost control that many Vistage members have found helpful:  “Double Your Profits: In Six Months or Less”  gives over 70 quick, tactical actions to cut costs and raise cash. For a great guide to creating a culture of long term, thoughtful cost control, ““Driving Down Costs: How to Manage and Cut Costs- Intelligently” should be on every CEO’s desk.

Econ Recon: Sundown in America?

Sundown in America?  Vistage Staff Economists Alan and Brian Beaulieu of ITR Economics have maintained that a mild recession can be expected in 2014, a more severe one in 2019, and a “Great Depression” scenario around 2030. Their record of forecast accuracy over the long term suggests that they be taken seriously.

But at least one person thinks a major downturn is much closer:  David Stockman, Ronald Reagan’s Budget Director shares his view of an economy and financial system that in his view can go nowhere but down, and soon,  in an op-ed piece in last Sunday’s New York Times.  Whether you concur with his conclusions or not, Stockman’s article, “ Sundown in America”, is likely to generate a lot of discussion in the coming weeks.